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CHICAGO, May 7 (Reuters) - Strong exports fueled by a weak dollar have lifted U.S. pork prices to a 10-month high, and continued global demand led by Japan and Russia could take prices even higher in the coming months.
Further gains will buck the seasonal trend for values to ease seasonally during summer months.
"These farm level hog prices tend to put in a peak sometime between late May and mid August," said John Lawrence, extension livestock economist at Iowa State University.
"But I think we will see some strength through the summer on supplies continuing to decline," he added.
"I think they (packers) will probably continue to export the product well and will continue to be supportive. Weights decrease seasonally and I think we will continue to see that come down," Lawrence said.
U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday put the pork carcass cutout value up $1.69 at $78.32 per cwt, the highest price level since June 21, 2007.
Strong demand for protein around the world and U.S. pork looking cheaper following the decline in the U.S. dollar lifted pork exports to record in the first two months of this year. And the trend is seen continuing when the March figures are released later this week.
In February, 390.66 million lbs of pork were exported, up 10.5 percent from January's record 353.4 million, and up 57 percent from February 2007's 249.07 million, according to USDA data released in April.
The recent oceangoing container shortage also has some analysts citing very good demand.
"When you don't have enough containers that means that stuff if going out," said Jack Salzsieder with K&S Financials. "And I think the meat counters are moving pork too."
"They all complain about the high price of cereals, nobody is complaining about the high price of meat. Meat prices have not come down one dime," Salzsieder said.
Historically, cash hog and pork prices put in a peak sometime between May and August. But this year expectations are that prices could run higher, especially with the export demand so strong and the government announcement that it was going to buy $50 million worth of additional pork products for domestic feeding programs.
But in the meantime, consumers are benefiting from the large pork production and interest by retailers to feature pork during a period when a slipping economy is slowing demand for higher priced beef.
"This spring retail prices were about unchanged from where they were a year ago. I would expect probably some continued weakness at the retail counter and that is what it is going to take to move the amount of product we have," Lawrence said.
"We are seeing higher farm level prices, but it takes time for the farm level prices to make it through to the retail counter. So I think we will see retail prices, what the consumer face, perhaps steady or even lower than we did a year ago for the summer months," Lawrence said.
Tighter numbers going into the fall should mean higher pork prices then. But it could be late fall.
"It will be Thanksgiving before we see much of that effect," Lawrence added.
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