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USDA Releases World Numbers for Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
Published Monday, May 12, 2008 at 04:46 AM
Total U.S. meat production in 2009 is projected to decline about 1 percent. Beef production will decline on tighter supplies of cattle. Pork production is expected to decline as producers reduce sows farrowing later this year and into next year in response to poor returns. Broiler production will be slightly higher and turkey production is forecast slightly lower. Egg production is forecast about unchanged in 2009.

The total meat production forecast for 2008 is raised to reflect higher expected cattle slaughter during the second quarter. Pork production is reduced due to lower slaughter in the second half of the year.

Total meat exports are forecast to increase. The recently announced agreement to re-open South Korea to imports of U.S. beef is expected to support increased exports beginning in mid-2008 and expanding through 2009. Pork exports for 2008 are raised as markets in Asia increase sharply. But pork exports are forecast to decline in 2009, especially if China's domestic pork supply situation improves.

In 2009, livestock and poultry prices are generally forecast higher due to lower meat supplies. Cattle prices are forecast about the same as 2008. Hog prices are forecast higher due to tighter supplies and continued strength in domestic demand and relative strong exports. Broiler prices will increase, reflecting tighter supplies in the first part of 2009. Turkey and egg prices are forecast to decline from record 2008 levels. Most livestock and poultry prices for 2008 are raised from last month due to stronger exports and, in the case of hogs and broilers, tighter supplies.

Milk production is forecast to increase fractionally in 2009 reflecting lower cow numbers and minimal gains in milk per cow. Poor returns are expected to end the expansionary phase of dairy cow inventories. Commercial exports are forecast to remain relatively robust. Domestic disappearance of fat and skim solids is expected to increase modestly, tightening commercial stocks. Cheese prices are forecast slightly lower.

© 2008 The Nebraska Rural Radio Association. All rights reserved.
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