Fiscal 2009 agricultural exports are forecast at $98.5 billion, down $14.5 billion from August and $17.0 billion below record 2008 sales. The outlook for U.S. exports has changed dramatically with the expectation of global recession in 2009. The combination of weaker global demand, falling prices, and an appreciating dollar create a very unfavorable outlook for U.S. exports.

Huge wheat supplies from Russia, EU, and Ukraine increase competition in grain markets. Grain and feed exports are lowered from August, and exports are now forecast $10 billion below record 2008 sales. Forecasted unit values for wheat and coarse grains are lowered from August, and year-over-year shipments are down about 20 percent. Soybeans and products are reduced $2.2 billion since August on lower unit values, and reduced supply lower year-over-year soybean shipments 3.1 million tons. China’s demand for soybeans remains strong. Cotton exports are lowered due to weak consumer demand for textiles. Animal product exports drop $1.7 billion since August mostly due to reduced demand for pork, broilers, animal fats, and dairy products. The forecast for horticultural products is lowered, but sales are still expected to increase from 2008.

Fiscal 2009 agricultural imports are lowered $2 billion from August but remain a record $81 billion. This reflects the slowest growth rate in many years. Despite the stronger dollar, and some relief from high oil prices, a slumping economy with rising unemployment and falling consumer spending is slowing import growth.

Find the complete report on the USDA ERS web site .